Archive for April, 2009

Asian markets recover as US data offset flu fears

Thursday, April 30th, 2009

HONG KONG (AP) — Asian stock markets recovered Wednesday as better-than-expected U.S. data gave investors hope of a turnaround in the world’s largest economy and helped offset their fears of a swine flu pandemic.

After two days of declines, most of the region’s major markets posted broad-based gains. Airline stocks, slammed in recent days amid worries about the disease’s toll on travel, rebounded sharply. The dollar strengthened against the yen, while oil prices were steady.

Investors were cheered after a closely watched measure of U.S. consumer confidence soared in April, suggesting Americans may be ready to spend again — a boon for export-driven Asian countries. An easing in the pace of home price declines also boosted sentiment.

Worries about swine flu and its impact on a world economy still reeling from recession have consumed the market this week. Countries everywhere have warned against or slapped outright bans on travel to Mexico, where the vast majority of cases are located, as new infections cropped up in New Zealand and Israel in recent days.

While the rapid spread of the virus, suspected in more than 150 deaths in Mexico, continues to inspire caution, many investors are waiting to see whether the outbreak develops into a full-blown epidemic.

“There are more flu cases today, but it hasn’t seriously escalated yet,” said Nicole Sze, Singapore-based investment analyst Nicole Sze of Bank Julius Baer & Co., which manages about $300 billion in assets. “Until we see a serious escalation the markets will likely trade in a range and be more focused on the economy and earnings.”

South Korean shares led the region after the country posted a record current account surplus in March. The Kospi benchmark rose 38.18, or 2.9 percent, to 1,338.42.

Chinese shares were helped by stronger earnings from China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia’s largest refiner by capacity, and the country’s biggest coal producer, China Shenhua Energy. Also comforting investors were signs there was solid demand for stakes in top lender ICBC, sold by foreign companies this week, analysts said.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 388.23 points, or 2.7 percent, to 14,943.34, and Shanghai’s main index added 2.8 percent to 2,467.51. Markets in Singapore, India and Taiwan also gained. Australian shares closed modestly lower after a seesaw session.

Japan’s market was closed for a national holiday and will reopen Thursday.

Investors sent Asian airline stocks skyward, with Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific taking off 5 percent and Air China soaring almost 10 percent.

The upbeat news about U.S. consumer sentiment also helped exporters that rise and fall with American spending habits. Retail goods and textile trader Li & Fung gained 9 percent in Hong Kong.

Overnight in New York, the consumer reading helped balanced out worries that large banks might need more capital following the government’s stress tests. The Dow Jones industrial average ended the day down 8.05, or 0.1 percent, to 8,016.95 after being down as much as 86 ahead of the consumer confidence report.

Broader stock indicators also lost ground. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 2.35, or 0.3 percent, to 855.16.

Wall Street futures signaled a higher open, with Dow futures up 53 points, or 0.7 percent, to 8,020, while S&P futures were up 6.1 points, or 0.7 percent, to 857.9.

Oil prices were little changed in Asian trade, with benchmark crude for June delivery up 2 cents at $49.94. The contract slipped 22 cents to settle at $49.92 overnight.

In currencies, the dollar gained to 96.67 yen from 96.55 yen. The euro rose to $1.3177 from $1.3134.

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Dollar, Yen Find Support On ‘Swine Flu’ Pandemic Fears, Adding To Concerns Over Bank Stress Tests

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

The Yen has been the main story overnight as the currency has re-established its safe-haven status with the potential “swine flu” pandemic sending cautious investors to the sidelines. The fact that the health concerns are based in the Western hemisphere has heightened concerns as it could negatively impact the U.S. economy where the most stimulus has been enacted and is the expected source of growth to help stem the current global downturn.

Talking Points
• Japanese Yen: Finds Support On “Swine Flu” Fears
• Pound: Housing Markets Continues to Show Weakness
• Euro: Deflation Concerns Remain
• US Dollar: Durable Goods Orders On Tap

Dollar, Yen Find Support On “Swine Flu” Pandemic Fears, Adding To Concerns Over Bank Stress Tests

The Yen has been the main story overnight as the currency has re-established its safe-haven status with the potential “swine flu” pandemic sending cautious investors to the sidelines. The fact that the health concerns are based in the Western hemisphere has heightened concerns as it could negatively impact the U.S. economy where the most stimulus has been enacted and is the expected source of growth to help stem the current global downturn. USD/JPY reached as low as 96.46 leaving the March 30th low of 95.94 as the next support level. There is a risk that market sentiment could return their focus back toward fundamentals, but that may not change sentiment as the pending results of the bank stress test and the gloomy outlook painted by the IMF for the global economy may still lead traders to avoid risky assets.

The Euro continues to remain under pressure as traders continue to unwind risk positions sending it back below the 100-Day SMA at 1.3219 to an intraday low of 1.3119. The economic docket demonstrated the two themes that are currently prevalent in the economic region growing confidence and declining prices. The German Gfk consumer confidence reading held steady at 25 for a third month as it beat estimates for a decline to 23. The sentiment reading follows improvement in the PMI and IFO business gauges as confidence is starting to improve on the back of the ECB’s increasingly accommodative monetary policy and the individual stimulus packages by the various countries. Meanwhile, the German import price index to -7.1% from -6.4% in February as declining oil costs continues to drive down inflationary pressures. Deflation concerns will remain as longs as price continue to fall and the economy lacks clear signs of growth returning. Therefore, expectations are t hath e central bank will lower their benchmark rate by another 25 bos and initiate non-standard measures over their next two policy meeting, which could become a weighing factor for the single currency. The 50-Day SMA is the next possible support level at 1.3059, but the April 20th below of 1.2889 will be the key level to watch.

The pound has also continued to remain under pressure as it fell to an intraday low of 1.4514, but we are starting to see support from the 100-Day SMA which stands at 1.4521. The hopes of a recovery in the U.K. housing market were put on hold when Hometrack reported that home prices fell for a 19th month by 0.3% bringing the annualized reading to -10.1%. Additionally, the BBA loans for home purchases measurement declined to 26,097 from 28,024 in March. The BoE continues to purchase debt in hopes of loosening credit markets, but if those results don’t begin to start to show results we may see fears grow that more downside risks remain for the country’s economy which could start to weigh on sterling. The 50-Day SMA at 1.4421 remains a key level of support since mid-March, and a failure there could lead to a significant move lower for the pound.

The dollar traded higher throughout the majority of the overnight session, except against the yen as the unknown attached to the “swine flu” has fueled risk aversion. We have started to see the greenback give back some of its gains as the extra-ordinary factor may have limited impact on broader sentiment. However, concerns over growth and the bank stress test may keep traders cautious going forward. A light fundamental calendar will leave the dollar at the mercy of the broader themes today but the FOMC meeting and the first quarter GDP report will provide event risk latter in the week. The Dallas Fed manufacturing report is the only release scheduled to hit the wires and it is expected to show a mild improvement to -46.0% from -49.0%. Dow futures continue to trade down over 100 points, and a weak day on Wall St could continue to lend support for the dollar.

Written by John Rivera, Currency Analyst

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The Smoothed Repulse Indicator

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

I'm not sure how common the Smoothed Repulse indicator actually is but it's one that I've recently discovered hidden away in ProRealTime, the excellent charting software, and I have to say I'm quite impressed by it so far. (…)
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Free Forex Technical Analysis Charts

Sunday, April 26th, 2009

What is mean by Free Forex Technical Analysis charts
To use the Free Forex Technical Analysis charts of monetary and policy papers to the negotiations which led to the currency, credit cards, you need reliable models for the communication and the graphics are not much better than the symmetrical triangle, the right and may be as high as an opposition , most offices use. ..

As with all on the table are symmetrical triangle on the psychology of investors, so that you can see why and how.

Why a symmetrical triangle

Symmetrical triangles can be used in the indecision of the market as it disintegrates and the future is uncertain. In general, the forces of supply and demand at the moment is the same as in a triangle. Efforts to better support from the top money quickly by selling the event, the other sauces and cheap prices to buy.

Everyone back to the surface up and down over the top, in the form of a symmetrical triangle pattern is typical. Where appropriate, this leads to indecision of the action and feel the market is broken or not used, in many cases outside the training.

Long usually with a low volatility and low volatility of the cases, followed by a high volatility of the markets has also decided, for the price. In many cases, before the big events, such as economic relations, market participants expect that the conclusions of the report and how they affect the prices. Then, before this Free Forex Technical Analysis charts the major geopolitical events and depend heavily on the training to wait and see “

Suite A Pattern

Research has shown that symmetrical triangles are usually in the sense of the trend. This means that the tendency is usually as a kind of continuation.

Move

It is always better to have a break in the triangle and not try to movements in advance - for the dynamics and the use of time in your company. We like the stochastic indicators (discussed in other articles) and search for a time in the pursuit of a transitional period.

We have found that the triangle is narrow and the time to deliver the best signal to the trend. If you need graphics, we are really most symmetrical triangle trade, well-trained staff and very reliable, if the prices, as the probability is high and the major currencies.

If you want to learn the Free Forex Technical Analysis charts of currency, the symmetrical triangle, a substantial part of their Forex education.

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Dollar, Yen And Risk Appetite Await G20 Meeting And US GDP

Sunday, April 26th, 2009

Market sentiment has stabilized over the past week as traders wait for fundamentals to either catch up to optimism or draw the budding recovery to a grinding halt. Ongoing earnings releases, first quarter growth reports from the world’s largest economies and a series of meetings attended by global policy makers can decide the fate of growth and optimism for months to come.

• Dollar, Yen And Risk Appetite Await G20 Meeting And US GDP
• Do Better Than Expected Earnings Signal A Turn For The Economy?
• Where Will Optimism Develop Without Confirmation Of A Recovery?

Market sentiment has stabilized over the past week as traders wait for fundamentals to either catch up to optimism or draw the budding recovery to a grinding halt. Ongoing earnings releases, first quarter growth reports from the world’s largest economies and a series of meetings attended by global policy makers can decide the fate of growth and optimism for months to come. Heading into this pervasive fundamental wave, traders from all asset classes have taken to caution. Reflecting the more speculative side of the market, the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average has curbed its most aggressive rally in two years. On the other side of the coin, interest in Treasuries has recovered while risk premiums through credit default swaps and other financially sensitive securities have curtailed their slow improvement. Unsurpassed liquidity makes the currency market the most discerning gauge of risk appetite versus risk aversion though. The Carry Index has extended the timid decline that began at the beginning of this month. However, looking beneath the surface of this complex measure, panic is further subsiding while expectations for returns slacken. Volatility for the broader currency is the lowest it has been since before the October market crash and credit seizure (despite the presence of event risk). In contrast, the scales of risk/reward have been balanced by shrinking yield forecasts (the interest rate outlook) and souring expectations for capital returns (risk reversals).
A sort of equilibrium has been struck between the potential for limited rates of return and the fading sense of fear that has encouraged reinvestment into the speculative areas of the market. However, as we have said many times before, this should not be considered a genuine recovery. Rather than a reduced pace of recession, a natural return to optimism and sentiment must come from positive forecasts for economic activity rather than a diminished pace of contraction. The round of event risk scheduled over the coming weeks provides the most comprehensive measure for health that we have been presented in months. The most pressing burden on sentiment are the gatherings of policy officials in Washington DC. On Friday, the G7 and G20 will convene; but the topics for discussion are not certain. The most meaningful outcome to the gathering of finance ministers would be a list of definitive steps and responsibilities aimed at turning individual and national rescue plans into a global one. This was the aim of the last summit in London; but so far, there has been little in the way of remarkable progress towards this goal. Whereas government policies for economic and financial aid support risk and reward equally, earnings activity and scheduled GDP releases will impact one or the other. The UK and US growth reports have obvious implications; but the accounting data is a more nuanced measure of risk through delinquencies and writedowns.

Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

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Weekly Trading Update - April 20-24

Sunday, April 26th, 2009

Well it's been a reasonably profitable week this week, although the prediction that I made about the EUR/USD a few days ago has turned out to be completely wrong, and I actually traded this one as well which I don't normally do. (…)
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Easy Forex Trading

Friday, April 24th, 2009

How can we do Easy Forex Trading?
Fast line is executed, a large number of sites that request you will receive the money in the Forex. But while the foreign exchange market is certainly a reality for a number of merchants, it is likely that the operators was difficult.

Many people in the world in search of a Easy Forex Trading, quick, simple cost-benefit ratio to operational changes. But, as to try to set the tone, is the fact that there are none. However, there is a simple rule that you do not fool with him.

The simple rule: Damage Control

That is the true key to profitability. Unfortunately, it is not what most people are looking for a “quick solution” to hear. If the damage is not attractive and stimulating, and many of these people with disabilities. The operators want the property, and unfortunately, often the opposite - that your.

To receive the dealer

Extraction, the negotiations on the winners and the losers of the probability of each branch. For them, the trade is a bet on a blind, trade is one of the risks of financial management. Nobody can accurately predict the future, and everyone knows that the dealer to win for Easy Forex Trading.

Good traders compare the benefits against the loss, and if they feel that the risks are too high, since the possibility of the use, non-commercial.

Okay operators need greater attention to the dangers of possible gains. They always ask: “What is the worst thing can happen when you come into this profession?” You know very well the consequences for all marketing activities. Preservation of capital is important for them to try to make money.

With the aim to learn, purchase and sale

His goal, for each Easy Forex Trading day of trade without incurring losses. Do you not too much money to earn … Success, your chances if you lose the benefits, of course for you.

If it is during the day in negotiations with (if it is only the threshold of income), then the praise and has more than 90% of all retailers!

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Forget About Inflation… It’s Deflation You Should Worry About

Friday, April 24th, 2009

A consensus has formed that the government’s massive money printing and debt-powered spending binge will soon destroy the destroy the dollar, crippling the remaining savings of anyone dumb enough not to buy “real” assets–like gold.

John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks that’s ridiculous. He’s also author of the popular e-letter.

The Fed is printing money, Mauldin says, but overall credit is being destroyed. The government is desperately trying to bring back inflation, so we can lessen the real burden of our huge debts, but this will take a year or two at best.

So in the meantime, Mauldin says, ignore the gold bugs. They’ve been wrong for 25 years and they’ll keep on being wrong for the foreseeable future.

A consensus has formed that the government’s massive money printing and debt-powered spending binge will soon destroy the destroy the dollar, crippling the remaining savings of anyone dumb enough not to buy “real” assets–like gold.

John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks that’s ridiculous. He’s also author of the popular e-letter, “Thoughts from the Frontline.”

The Fed is printing money, Mauldin says, but overall credit is being destroyed. The government is desperately trying to bring back inflation, so we can lessen the real burden of our huge debts, but this will take a year or two at best.

So in the meantime, Mauldin says, ignore the gold bugs. They’ve been wrong for 25 years and they’ll keep on being wrong for the foreseeable future.

A consensus has formed that the government’s massive money printing and debt-powered spending binge will soon destroy the destroy the dollar, crippling the remaining savings of anyone dumb enough not to buy “real” assets–like gold.

John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks that’s ridiculous. He’s also author of the popular e-letter, “Thoughts from the Frontline.”

The Fed is printing money, Mauldin says, but overall credit is being destroyed. The government is desperately trying to bring back inflation, so we can lessen the real burden of our huge debts, but this will take a year or two at best.

So in the meantime, Mauldin says, ignore the gold bugs. They’ve been wrong for 25 years and they’ll keep on being wrong for the foreseeable future.

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Thank You Darling!

Friday, April 24th, 2009

Alistair Darling today delivered his budget which revealed the full extent of the distressing state of the UK economy. (…)
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My Forex Robot Make Money Really Fast - Day Trading Forex Robot

Friday, April 24th, 2009

My Forex Robot Make Money Really Fast - Day Trading Forex RobotEmma CareyI am sure many of you are worried about if Day Trading Forex Robot actually works or Not. Big Clue!Here I am telling you my very own experience with Day Trading Forex and how do I reach to my destination and choice of Day Trading Forex as most suitable Forex Trading Software.Until I was being introduced with Day Trading
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